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August 1, 2018 at 9:19 pm #1202601014
I honestly think it will happen. I know a lot of people don’t think so because she’s new and young but hear me out. This movie WILL be nominated for best picture. It has the reviews and the appeal. Like Get Out from last year, which at its release, people didn’t even conceive of it getting nominations, Eighth Grade will remain in the conversation as one of the years best films and performances from its newcomer lead. Critics circles will start the hype and it will continue from there. Indie spirits, critics choice… Also, if eighth grade is indeed a best picture nominee, which I see no reason as to why it wouldn’t be, then best actress would go very nicely with its screenplay and picture nomination.August 1, 2018 at 9:44 pm #1202601030
This won’t happen. I doubt it. The movie will likely get an Original Screenplay nomination. If it is campaigned hard enough then a Best Picture nomination is possible as well.
Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!
Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.August 1, 2018 at 9:49 pm #1202601032
What about Thomasin Mckenzie in Leave No Trace? That film has a 1oo% RT score and was directed by Debra Granik (Winter’s Bone). She could do what jlaw did 8 years ago and score a nom.August 1, 2018 at 10:09 pm #1202601039
Surprisingly, I really can see this getting nominated for Best Picture. I think Best Actress might be more of a long shot but still in the realm of possibility… for now I’m just predicting it for Original Screenplay.August 1, 2018 at 10:36 pm #1202601049
As much as I adore Elsie’s performance (and the film overall), I hiiiighly doubt she’ll be nominated for it. I definitely see her being nominated for/winning some Young Performer critic awards, but that’s about it.August 2, 2018 at 1:51 am #1202601123
Too low key and lived in. Performance like that rarely get nominated. If the supposed front runners that people are predicting all tank critically and commercially she may sneak in but she very much the long shot as she would be in most other years.August 2, 2018 at 5:23 am #1202601175
Problem is, I see Thomasin McKenzie getting the critics’ push over Elsie Fisher. In a better world, both should get in.August 2, 2018 at 7:23 am #1202601225
Fisher absolutely deserves it but I suspect the recognition ends at an ISA nom and possibly a Globe nomination (and, of course, all of the Young Actor mentions). Josh Hamilton also richly deserves some awards season love.
THE OSCAR 100 (#25-21): Peter Sellers, Orson Welles, Montgomery Clift, Katharine Hepburn and Robert ForsterAugust 2, 2018 at 9:59 am #1202601339
Leave No Trace is a very subdued movie which is why I don’t think it will appeal to the academy the way other films will. Eighth Grade has more mainstream appeal, whereas your average audience member will likely find Leave No Trace to be slow for their taste.
McKenzie Davis’s performance is great. She’s just very subtle. Not always the type of performance the academy likes.
I like to look at imdb, the user rating on rotten tomatoes, and letterboxd to see what’s getting the strongest buzz outside of critics circles. And Eighth Grade excels on all those fronts better than Leave No Trace.August 3, 2018 at 12:20 pm #1202602088
MY REPLY TO THIS POST
THE JOKE VERSION:
Yes! FINALLY someone who agrees with me that Isla Fisher will be nominated for an Oscar one day.
Oh wait. You’re talking about ELSIE Fisher. 🙁
THE SERIOUS VERSION:
No, I don’t see her getting in. First off, Fisher will be 15 (one month away from her 16th birthday on Oscars night). It is extremely rare for the Academy to nominate someone aged 15 or younger in Lead. In fact, it’s only happened three times. In 1931, Jackie Cooper was nominated at age 9 for Skippy. In 2004, Keisha Castle-Hughes was nominated at age 13 for Whale Rider. And in 2013, Quvenzhané Wallis was nominated at age 9 for Beasts of the Southern Wild.
In order for Fisher to get in, two things will need to happen to create the perfect storm: (1) The competition for Best Actress needs to thin out. Like a lot. As in, more than one of the films that are being touted as possible sources for Best Actress nominations (The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots, Widows, etc.) turn out to be trainwrecks. (2) Fisher will have to be that good. As in, Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name good.
But even though I don’t see Fisher getting in for this film, I can certainly see her getting nominated in the future, when she’s an adult. Just like I can see her sound-alike getting nominated. 🙂August 3, 2018 at 3:48 pm #1202602193
Ellie Fisher must hope for a Tiffany Haddish run, but it won’t happen at the Oscars. If it was just for the critics, films like “Blue is the Warmest Color”, “Inside Llewyn Davis”, “Bright Star”, “The Florida Project” and others had better luck.
Another point is Fisher won’t have the critics push considering the classic idiosyncrasy of the same groups and the type of performance. Right now Toni Collette and Glenn Close are the current favourites in that line and that’s not counting the potential surprise of Searchlight ladies.
And last, A24 is still a small studio and they have the new Jonah Hill’s film with rumors of Telluride. Even when they have acclaimed films, they tend to make priorities. Last season they had “Menashe” and “Ghost Story”.August 4, 2018 at 5:50 am #1202602512
There is no question of whether she deserves it, she is amazing. Like crazy good. An Oscar nomination is a long shot but I can see a narrative building, similar to how Kaluuya slowly rose from being a long shot to an easy prediction.
I think it is very reachable for her to get nominated at the Independent Spirit Awards and Gothams, which will probably like the movie anyway. A Globe nomination is definitely likely in comedy. Then she can start to build up nominations at critic groups and hopefully critics choice. And SAG isn’t too impossible because SAG favors early releases, children, and quirky comedic dramas.
Anyways, it would be a heck of a long shot for her to even get half of those. And even if she did get them all, it’d still be tough for her to get an Oscar nomination. She hands down deserves it though.
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