Will “Killing Eve” make a killing at the Golden Globes? Or are a bunch of Globes going home with “Homecoming”? The former had been on top of our Best Drama Series combined odds for months, but the latter, which just premiered in November, has been inching its way up the leaderboard, including on some of our editors’ ballots.
“I’ve recently switched to ‘Homecoming,'” Daniel Montgomery said in our pre-nominations Golden Globes TV slugfest with Chris Beachum, Paul Sheehan, Susan Wloszczyna and myself (watch above). “They adore Amazon at the Golden Globes. They’ve won Best Comedy Series three times for three different shows. So I’ve got ‘Homecoming’ and I’ve got Julia [Roberts] to go along with it [in Best TV Drama Actress] because the Globes often like to pair up a program winner or a film winner with at least one acting award.”
Sheehan is sticking with “Killing Eve” for now, but wonders “what maybe hurts ‘Killing Eve’ is that it was up at the Emmys.” The show received Emmy bids for Sandra Oh, who was the first actress of Asian descent to be up in Best Drama Actress, and Best Drama Writing.
“I do agree that the Emmys might hurt that a little bit, but because it didn’t win anything and because it didn’t get [nominations for] series or Jodie Comer, I don’t know that they’re going to look down on it as being first at the Emmys. I have it winning,” Beachum said. “‘Killing Eve,’ to me, almost feels a little bit safe of a choice.”
Oh has similarly felt the heat from Roberts in our drama actress odds since “Homecoming”‘s debut, but Montgomery has his eye on her co-star. “I think that’s a close race between [Roberts] and Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer. I think if they nominate Jodie Comer, she could win,” he said. “It’s a showier role, it’s the one that didn’t get nominated at the Emmys, she’s a breakthrough star who the Globes often like. They really like those new starlets. Or I could see them splitting the vote and helping Julia Roberts.”
The drama actor race is far more murky. Montgomery currently has Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”), but admits, “I don’t necessarily know if that’s going to happen.” Wloszczyna and I are not high on Rhys, since the Globes has never been huge fans of “The Americans” — the show has never been up for Best Drama Series. “I just think because [‘The Americans’ is] over, I don’t think they’re a sentimental voting group,” Wloszczyna said. “They do things for other reasons. … Who knows, he might not even get nominated.”
“I don’t think they have any urge to reward ‘The Americans,'” I said. “The show was never as a big of a hit as ‘Breaking Bad’ was. They felt pressured to reward ‘Breaking Bad’ and Bryan Cranston. I don’t think they feel the same pressure to reward The Americans.'”
As for comedy, the lack of breakout new comedies might lead to back-to-back wins for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” which would be the first comedy to defend its since “Glee” did it eight years ago. “I do think it’s winning here. It’s the kind of show they like anyway,” Beachum said. “The only other really new show that you’d say could get in — and I don’t know if it’s their cup of tea — is ‘Barry.'”
Montgomery is backing Barry and its Emmy-winning star/creator Bill Hader. “I’m a little skeptical about whether they’ll give ‘The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’ wins again after last year,” he said. “It won the Globes, they put it on the map last year, and then it swept the Emmys. Sometimes people can repeat off of that momentum, like ‘Homeland’ won its second Golden Globe right after it swept the Emmys in kind of a surprise. But I don’t have it winning either comedy series or comedy actress. Right now I’m going out on a limb for Kristen Bell [‘The Good Place’].”
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Golden Globe contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Golden Globe predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on Dec. 6.